Sunday, September 30, 2012

Another Ohio poll shows Romney collapse, trails Obama 51-42%

The Columbus Dispatch Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by near double digits, 51-42%.  The mail-in poll was taken over the course of ten days (Sept 19-29) and appears to confirm the results of another awful poll from earlier this week. It also confirms the consensus finding amongst pollsters that the Ohio electorate is going to look remarkably similar to the 2008 electorate (D+8). The partisan identification for the likely voters in this particular Ohio poll is 43% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 20% Other (D+8).

Here's the Columbus Dispatch poll, re-weighted to match 2008 CNN exit poll findings on party identification in Ohio:

Dispatch poll weighted to 2008 Ohio exit polling:

Party ID        Obama                 Romney

39D               36.27 (93%)        1.17    (3%)
31R               1.55   (5%)          27.9    (90%)
30I                13.5  (45%)         12.6    (42%)
                      51.32%              41.67%

 Naturally, the result is nearly identical given the survey's partisan identification findings being the same as 2008 election day partisan identification. But what happens to the Dispatch poll if they had found an electorate that was much more GOP friendly? Specifically, what would happen if we re-weight the dispatch poll to 2010 turnout?:

Dispatch poll weighted to 2010 Ohio exit polling:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

36D               33.48 (93%)          1.08    (3%)
36R               1.8     (5%)            32.4    (90%)
28I                12.6   (45%)          11.76   (42%)
                      47.88%                45.24%

Obama's strong 9 point lead becomes a three point lead, 48-45%. Lets take this one step further and re-weight the Dispatch cross-tabs to 2004 Ohio turnout (35D/40R/25I):

Dispatch poll weighted to 2004 Ohio exit polling:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

35D               32.55 (93%)          1.05    (3%)
40R               2        (5%)            36       (90%)
25I                11.25 (45%)          10.5    (42%)
                      45.8%                    47.55%

If the GOP has  remarkable turnout in Ohio on par with 2004, then the Dispatch poll would have Romney ahead of Obama, 48-46%. That's a net 11 point shift from what the Dispatch is actually finding in Ohio this last half of September. The Romney camp certainly can't rely on an R+5 electorate in 2004, nor should they be too confident that they'll get a 2010 style electorate. My own personal hunch is that turnout will be between 2008 and 2010 numbers. An average of the turnout numbers has Democrats at 37.5%, Republicans at 33.5%, Independents at 29%

Dispatch poll weighted to average of 2010 and 2008 Ohio exit polling:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

37.5D            34.875(93%)        1.125  (3%)
33.5R            1.675  (5%)           30.15  (90%)
29I                13.05 (45%)          12.18   (42%)
                      49.6%                    43.445%

Obama still has a healthy lead of 50-43% in the event November turnout matches an average of  2008 and 2010 turnout.  This is why Mitt Romney indeed has "an Ohio problem."

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