Thursday, September 27, 2012

BAD IOWA POLL FOR ROMNEY: PPP has Obama leading 51-44%

Public Policy Polling (D) is out with a new Iowa poll which seems to confirm what every pollster (but Rasmussen) now knows - the gap between Obama and Romney is widening in Obama's favor. Look no further than this opening paragraph from Tom Jensen:
PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points in the state, 51-44. Obama's advantage has increased by 5 points since PPP's last poll of the state in late August when he led just 47-45.
Looking further into the internals,  you see that Obama is doing a much better job of consolidating his Democratic base than Romney is his. Obama is attracting 91% of Democrats, and hits double-digits with Iowa Republican likely voters (10%). Meanwhile, Romney only attracts 85% of his base in Iowa, while peeling off 7% from Democrats. Among the crucial Independent vote, Obama leads 47-43%.

According to Public Policy Polling findings, the Iowa likely voter pool is currently identifying themselves as 3 points MORE Democratic than they were in 2008. In 2008, Iowa party ID per CNN exit polls was 34D/33R/33I (D+1). In the 2010 Governor's race, turnout was 31D/35R/34I (R+4). PPP survey results find an electorate that is 37% Dem, 33% Republican, 30% Independent, or D+4. Just for fun, lets see what PPP's findings would have yielded had their partisan ID numbers reflected CNN's 2008 Iowa exit poll numbers:

Obama still leads by a healthy 50-45% margin, which is obviously 2 points better than the original 51-44% result of the poll. The re-weighted to 2008 Iowa PPP poll also indicates that Romney is performing better at this stage than McCain's margin of loss in the state, which was 9.2 points. If we look further, and apply PPP's numbers to a turnout model that reflects the GOP-friendly 2010 election year (R+4), it gets even closer:
If the GOP is fortunate enough to see an electorate that looks similar to the 2010 electorate, and if these partisan groups vote the way PPP is suggesting they will, then we have a nearly tied race on our hands in Iowa, with Obama ahead 48-47%. If you were to average the partisan ID of Iowa voters from 2008 to 2010 and assume November turnout will be the same, then turnout in Iowa will be about 32.5% Dem, 34% Rep, and 33.5% Independent. Here is what the PPP Iowa poll looks like applying this hypothetical "average" turnout model:
As you can see, in this "likely turnout scenario" model that averages 2010 and 2008 turnout, Obama only leads Romney 49-46%, as opposed to the 51-44% the poll shows. So as I noted with regards to Quinnipiac's Ohio and Florida polls from earlier today, Mitt Romney is still trailing, albeit by much smaller margins, even assuming an electorate along the lines of 2010. Obama's winning Iowa by a 5 point margin in a 2008 electorate, but only leads by 1 point in a 2010 style electorate.

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