PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points in the state, 51-44. Obama's advantage has increased by 5 points since PPP's last poll of the state in late August when he led just 47-45.Looking further into the internals, you see that Obama is doing a much better job of consolidating his Democratic base than Romney is his. Obama is attracting 91% of Democrats, and hits double-digits with Iowa Republican likely voters (10%). Meanwhile, Romney only attracts 85% of his base in Iowa, while peeling off 7% from Democrats. Among the crucial Independent vote, Obama leads 47-43%.
According to Public Policy Polling findings, the Iowa likely voter pool is currently identifying themselves as 3 points MORE Democratic than they were in 2008. In 2008, Iowa party ID per CNN exit polls was 34D/33R/33I (D+1). In the 2010 Governor's race, turnout was 31D/35R/34I (R+4). PPP survey results find an electorate that is 37% Dem, 33% Republican, 30% Independent, or D+4. Just for fun, lets see what PPP's findings would have yielded had their partisan ID numbers reflected CNN's 2008 Iowa exit poll numbers:
Quinnipiac's Ohio and Florida polls from earlier today, Mitt Romney is still trailing, albeit by much smaller margins, even assuming an electorate along the lines of 2010. Obama's winning Iowa by a 5 point margin in a 2008 electorate, but only leads by 1 point in a 2010 style electorate.