The three NBC/Marist polls released today had one bit of good news for Romney - Nevada is apparently a two point race, with Obama leading 49-47% amongst likely voters. Why is it good news that Romney is trailing two points in a state with just 6 electoral college votes? Because Obama carried it 55-43% in 2008, and because Romney currently trails there by an average of 4 pts. And much like the party ID of the Connecticut PPP poll released earlier today, the Marist poll found Nevada voters identifying with political parties in a similar fashion from four years ago. The party ID for the Nevada Marist poll is 38% Democrat, 31% Republican, and 30% Independent. In 2008, it was 38D/30R/32I. So as of now, the state of the race in Nevada is remarkably similar to 2008. Democrats plan to turnout by a net 7 points more than Republicans, and that gives Obama a 2 point lead.
Assume though that turnout in Nevada reflects the more GOP-friendly turnout that took place in the 2010 midterms. That year, partisan identification looked like this: 35D/33R/32I (D+2). If you accept the Marist crosstabs as true, but replace their partisan identification findings with 2010 Nevada exit polling findings, the numbers look like this: