Friday, October 26, 2012

Another D+9 party ID finding in Ohio, this time from ARG

Large Romney rally in Cleveland, Ohio, Nov. 4, 2012. Photo found at
What's with all the polls out of Ohio showing a D+9 electorate? Earlier this week, Time/CNN released a poll showing Obama leading in th Buckeye state by 5 points, with a D+9 sample. Today, the American Research Group releases an Ohio poll showing Obama leading Romney 49-47%, with likely voters self-identifying as 43% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 23% Independent. That's significantly MORE Democratic than the Ohio electorate in the wave election year of 2008, when turnout was D+5. Even more startling than the ARG party ID is Romney's numbers with Independents: he's leading Obama by 21 points yet still trails by 2.

Assuming ARG's party ID finding is NOT an accurate representation of the Ohio electorate this November, what would the ARG poll look like reweighted to 2008 partisan ID?

ARG poll reweighted to 2008 Ohio turnout:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

37.5D            32.625 (87%)         3.375     (9%)
32.5R            3.25     (10%)          28.6      (88%)
30I                10.8     (36%)          17.1      (57%)
                     46.675%                  49.075%

If Obama is fortunate enough to have the 2012 electorate resemble the 2008 electorate, Romney would LEAD the Ohio ARG poll 49-47%, a reversal of Obama's actual lead in the poll.

In 2010, a strong Republican year, the Ohio electorate was TIED between Democrats and Republicans at 36D/36R/28I. Here is what the ARG poll would look like if Romney is able to bring out Republicans in full force, as in 2010:

ARG poll reweighted to 2010 Ohio turnout:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

36D              31.32  (87%)            3.24     (9%)
36R               3.6     (10%)            31.68   (88%)
28I                10.08  (36%)           15.96   (57%)
                     45%                         50.88%

Romney would take his most commanding lead in Ohio yet if the ARG poll had found an electorate similar to 2010, 51-45%. Is a 2010 electorate likely in Ohio? No. But neither is ARG's D+9 finding. Either way, Romney is essentially TIED w/ Obama, despite findings of incredibly high Democratic turnout.

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