Monday, October 1, 2012

Obama leads Romney nationally 49-46% in survey that finds a D+6 electorate.

ARG just released their national poll, and it finds Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan dropping one point from the previous ARG poll 10 days ago. They now trail Obama-Biden 49-46%. The poll was taken September 27-30.

Much like their NC poll, ARG finds that likely voter party ID is very similar to 2008 turnout (38D/32R/30I; D+6). Here are the ARG numbers, re-weighted to 2008's D+7 partisan identification.

ARG poll weighted to 2008 national partisan I.D.:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

39D              34.71  (89%)          2.73   (7%)
32R               0.96    (3%)           29.12 (91%)
29I                13.63  (47%)         13.92   (48%)
                        49.3%                  45.77%

Obama's lead holds steady at about 3.5 points. But what happens if the partisan identification on election day is TIED between Democrats and Republicans, as it was in 2010? Romney takes a 49-46% lead:

ARG poll weighted to 2010 national partisan I.D.:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

35D             31.15 (89%)           2.45   (7%)
35R             1.05   (3%)             31.85 (91%)
30I              14.1   (47%)           14.4   (48%)
                        46.3%                 48.7%


Finally, if ARG somehow hit the nail on the head with their cross tabs,  and the poll was re-weighted to an average of  2010 and 2008 national partisan I.D (D+3.5), we'd have a tied race:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

37D               32.93  (89%)         2.59     (7%)
33.5R            1.005   (3%)          30.485 (91%)
29.5I             13.865  (47%)       14.16   (48%)
                       47.8%                  47.235%


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