Monday, October 8, 2012

Pew result has pollsters scratching heads, Republicans ecstatic, and Democrats livid.

Pew Research just released a poll taken Oct. 4-7th (entirely AFTER the Denver debate) showing Mitt Romney surging into a 49-45% lead among likely voters, and a 46-46% TIE among registered voters. The top line seems even more miraculous when you consider where the race stood at the time of Pew's last national poll on Sept. 12-16 (Obama led Romney 51-43% among likely voters, and 51-42% among registered voters).

Even beyond the top line result, the Pew poll is receiving a lot of attention for their internal finding that likely voters nationwide identified as 36% Republican, 31% Democrat, and 30% Independent, or R+5. This number may seem unrealistic to a lot of exit poll watchers, given that it indicates an electorate 5 points more Republican than 2004 AND 2010 turnout, both thought to be strong Republican years. Though, to be fair, Pew's September poll found an electorate that was 39D/29R/30I, or D+10. In other words, Pew found a NET 15 POINT SWING in partisan identification over the course of just three weeks.

For the sake of argument, assume for a moment that turnout in November looks more like 2008 than Pew's post-debate findings. In that case, the Pew poll results would look like this:

Pew poll weighted to 2008 CNN national exit poll:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

39D               36.66 (94%)           1.95   (5%)
32R               2.24   (7%)             29.12 (91%)
29I                12.18 (42%)           13.34  (46%)
                       51.08%                   44.41%

Amazing what a little partisan ID re-weighting can do. If turnout resembles 2008, then Romney's 49-45% lead in the Pew poll becomes a 51-44% deficit.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and mine is that November turnout will NOT be R+5 or D+7. An average of those two numbers seems much more likely (35D/34R/29.5I, or D+1).

Pew poll weighted to average of their partisan sample AND 2008 CNN national exit poll:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

35D              32.9  (94%)             1.75   (5%)
34R               2.38  (7%)              30.94 (91%)
29.5I             12.39 (42%)           13.57  (46%)
                       47.67%                   46.26%

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.