Monday, October 1, 2012

In contrast to nearly every pollster since the DNC, today's Politico / Battleground poll finds electorate closer to 2010 than 2008

Today's  POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters has Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-47%. The poll was taken September 24-27.

Among Democrats, Obama wins 94% to Mitt Romney's 5%. Among Republicans, Romney wins 91% to Obama's 5%. Among Independents, Romney leads 47-43%. Partisan identification for the poll is closer to 2010 party ID than 2008, at D+2 (43D/41R/15I). If turnout looks closer to 2008, as most polls have found since the DNC, the Battleground poll would look like this:
Politico/Battleground poll weighted to 2008 national partisan I.D.:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

39D             36.66 (94%)           1.95   (5%)
32R             1.6     (5%)             29.12 (91%)
29I              12.47  (43%)          13.63 (47%) 
                    50.73%                     44.7%

Obama's 49-47% lead becomes a 51-45% lead in the event that turnout in November resembles 2008. If turnout is closer to Politico's findings, and resembles the 2010 electorate, the race is tied at 48-48%:

Politico/Battleground poll weighted to 2010 national partisan I.D.:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

35D             32.9 (94%)           1.75   (5%)
35R             1.75     (5%)             31.85 (91%)
30I              12.9  (43%)          14.1 (47%) 
                    47.55%                     47.7%

...and if party ID this November ends up being an average between 2010 and 2008 exit polling numbers (D+3.5), Obama's lead grows slightly from 2 points to 3 points, 49-46%:

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

37D               34.78 (94%)          1.85     (5%)
33.5R            1.675  (5%)           30.485 (91%)
29.5I             12.685 (43%)         13.865 (47%) 
                      49.14%                     46.2%

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