Sunday, October 7, 2012

Post Denver Debate, Virginia remains in Obama's favor, per PPP (50-47%).

Despite saying overwhelmingly that Mitt Romney won the debate last Wednesday (61-28%), Virginia continues to give President Obama the lead by a 50-47% margin. That's a slight improvement from PPP's last poll in mid-September that showed the President ahead by 5 points, 51-46%.

The poll finds likely voters in Virginia identifying as 38% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 30% Independent (D+6). That matches the Democrats turnout advantage in the state in 2008, which was measured  at 39D/33R/27I. But in 2004, CNN exit polls found a much more Republican electorate than 2008 (35D/39R/26I).  And even more recently, in the 2009 Governor's race, the Virginia electorate was much more reminiscent of 2004 than 2008 (33D/37R/30I, or R+4).

So what would the PPP poll have looked like had they weighted their partisan sample to reflect the 2009 Virginia Governor's race exit poll numbers?

PPP poll weighted to 2009 CNN Virginia exit poll (Governor's race):

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

33D              30.03 (91%)           2.64    (8%)
37R               2.59  (7%)             34.04 (92%)
30I                13.8 (46%)            13.8 (46%)
                      46.42%                   50.48%

So if the GOP is fortunate enough to have the Virginia electorate resemble 2004 or 2009 statewide turnout, then Obama's 3 point lead becomes a 4 point Romney lead (re-weighting PPP's internals to 2009 turnout).

What would the PPP numbers look like if 2012 Va turnout is an average of 2009 and 2008 turnout?

Party ID        Obama                  Romney

36D              32.76 (91%)           2.88    (8%)
35R               2.45  (7%)             32.2 (92%)
28.5I             13.11 (46%)           13.11 (46%)
                      48.32%                      48.19%

Interesting. If you're like me, and believe that November turnout in Va will be a cross between 2009 and 2008 (D+1), the PPP poll becomes a dead heat, 48-48%. 

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