Monday, October 22, 2012

OHIO: Obama leads Romney 49-47% if Quinnipiac Poll is re-weighted to 2008 turnout numbers, leads 51-45% w/ 2004 turnout.

Rural Ohio, a region of the state Obama-Biden lost to McCain-Palin in 2008, 54-43%. Photo courtesy of
Quinnipiac is out with a new poll of Ohio showing Obama with a strong 5 point lead, 50-45%. There are two potential bright spots for Romney, however: 1) Despite Obama's strong lead in the state, it is only half as strong as it was in Quinnipiac's pre-debate poll. Then, Obama led Romney 53-43%. 2) Quinnipiac finds likely voters identifying as 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, and 34% Independent, for a party ID of D+9. That finding indicates that Democratic turnout in 2012 would be near double the turnout in 2008, a wave Democratic year in which Democrats shattered turnout records. Party ID in 2008 was D+5. What happens to the Quinnipiac poll when it is reweighted to 2008 turnout?

Quinnipiac poll weighted to 2008 Ohio turnout:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

37.5D            34.875 (93%)          1.875    (5%)
32.5R            1.95     (6%)            30.225  (93%)
30I                12.6     (42%)           14.7     (49%)
                       49.425%                  46.8%

If the Quinnipiac party ID finding of D+9 happens to be incorrect this November, and turnout reverts back to 2008 levels, Obama would lead Romney by just 49-47% in the Q-poll. Again, that is the case simply by reweighting to 2008, which will be no easy feat for the President the second time around. On the other end, here is what happens to the Q-poll if you re-weight to 2004 Ohio turnout numbers, when the electorate was  R+5 (35D/40R/25I)?  

Quinnipiac poll weighted to 2004 Ohio turnout:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

35D            32.55  (93%)            1.75    (5%)
40R            2.4      (6%)              37.2    (93%)
25I             10.5   (42%)             12.25   (49%)
                   45.45%                     51.2%

Romney would lead Obama 51-45% in the event Ohio turnout resembles 2004 turnout. Is this a likely scenario? No. But neither is Quinnipiac's party ID finding of D+9. So why not average the two, and reweight the poll to those numbers? Party ID would be 35D/33R/29.5I (D+2).

Quinnipiac poll weighted to average of D+9 and R+5  turnout:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

35D            32.55  (93%)            1.75     (5%)
33R            1.98     (6%)             30.69   (93%)
29.5I           12.39   (42%)           14.455 (49%)
                   46.92%                      46.895%

Under a D+2 turnout scenario, the Quinnipiac poll is about as close as it can get, 46-46%. Who knows what Ohio turnout will look like in November? But if I were forced to bet, I'd go with something like D+2. 

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