|Gov. Bob McDonnell and Michele Bachmann join Mitt Romney on stage at a rally in Portsmouth, Virginia last May. Photo courtesy of Mark Makela/Reuters|
Who are we to argue with poll findings? But I would propose that Quinnipiac's party ID findings certainly represent Obama's ceiling in Virginia, and probably Romney's floor.
What would Mitt Romney's ceiling look like in Virginia, using the Quinnipiac poll findings? Given that no statewide election was held in Virginia in 2010, I'll look to the 2009 Governor's race and the 2004 Presidential race for a example of Mitt Romney's ceiling in Virginia. In both years, Virginia turnout was R+4.
Here is what the Quinnipiac poll would look like reweighted to 2009/2004 Virginia turnout.
Quinnipiac poll weighted to 2009 Virginia turnout:
Party ID Obama Romney
33D 31.68 (96%) 0.99 (3%)
37R 2.22 (6%) 34.41 (93%)
30I 10.8 (36%) 17.1 (57%)
As you can see, Romney has a higher ceiling in Virginia than Obama, when considering the possible ranges of turnout based on past exit polling. If Quinnipiac's numbers are otherwise correct, than Obama has a ceiling in Virginia of about 49-47%. However, if Mitt Romney sees turnout comparable to 2004 or 2009, his ceiling is much higher. He would lead the Q-poll in such a scenario 53-45%.