|PPP tweet from Sep. 30, 2012.|
So how does Romney get to a 2 point lead when Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly the same margin as 2008? By winning Independents (50-41%), and by keeping Obama at a surprisingly low number with his own base (81%). Romney captures 87% of Republicans, as well as 16% of Democrats. Obama only attracts 11% of Republicans.
Since most can agree that D+6 is on the high end of the spectrum in terms of Democratic turnout, here's a look at the PPP survey reweighted to a likely best-case turnout scenario for Romney: 37% Dem, 37% Rep, 26% Ind - the turnout numbers from the 2004 election, per CNN.
PPP daily tracker weighted to 2004 CNN exit poll party ID:
Party ID Obama Romney
37D 29.97 (81%) 5.92 (16%)
37R 4.07 (11%) 32.19 (87%)
26I 10.4 (40%) 13.26 (51%)
Exit polls in and of themselves are polls, so naturally, you can expect a reasonable amount of error in their numbers. But supposing the 2004 CNN party ID numbers are accurate, Romney would lead 51-44% in the event the PPP poll is reweighted to a tied electorate. That's on par with Obama's 53-46% win in 2008.