Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Romney +2 with a survey sample similar to 2008 turnout

PPP tweet from Sep. 30, 2012.
PPP (D) recently joined the swarm of pollsters releasing daily presidential tracking polls, and today's numbers showed Romney moving ahead of Obama among likely voters nationally, 49-47%. Obama and Romney were tied on Monday, 48-48%. A quick glance at the poll's internals reveal that Romney's 2 point national lead comes despite poll respondents having a strong Democratic lean (D+6, 41D/35R/24I%). That's only one point less Democratic than national turnout in 2008, according to CNN Exit polls.

So how does Romney get to a 2 point lead when Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly the same margin as 2008? By winning Independents (50-41%), and by keeping Obama at a surprisingly low number with his own base (81%). Romney captures 87% of Republicans, as well as 16% of Democrats. Obama only attracts 11% of Republicans.

Since most can agree that D+6 is on the high end of the spectrum in terms of Democratic turnout, here's a look at the PPP survey reweighted to a likely best-case turnout scenario for Romney: 37% Dem, 37% Rep, 26% Ind - the turnout numbers from the 2004 election, per CNN.
PPP daily tracker weighted to 2004 CNN exit poll party ID:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

37D               29.97   (81%)          5.92    (16%)
37R               4.07     (11%)          32.19   (87%)
26I                10.4   (40%)            13.26   (51%)
                      44.44%                     51.37%

Exit polls in and of themselves are polls, so naturally, you can expect a reasonable amount of error in their numbers. But supposing the 2004 CNN party ID numbers are accurate, Romney would lead  51-44% in the event the PPP poll is reweighted to a tied electorate. That's on par with Obama's 53-46% win in 2008.        

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.