Wednesday, October 24, 2012

CNN/Time confirms Obama's Ohio lead, but is it really 5 points?

Obama campaign kick-off in Columbus, Ohio, May 5, 2012. Photo courtesy of Scott Olson/Getty Images

The CNN/Time poll released this afternoon showing Obama ahead 49-44% also finds Ohio likely voters identifying as Democrats at a historically high net rate when compared to past exit poll numbers. Per the poll's findings, 37% of respondents were Democrats, 28% Republican, and 29% Independent, or D+9. Just for fun, lets reweight the poll to 2008 turnout (D+5), per exit polls and Josh Jordan of NRO.

Time/CNN poll reweighted to 2008 Ohio turnout per CNN exit polls:

Party ID        Obama                    Romney

37.5D            34.5    (92%)           2.25      (6%)
32.5R            3.575   (11%)          27.625  (85%)
30I                11.4     (38%)          15.9      (53%)
                       49.475%                   45.775%     

A 49-44% lead for Obama becomes 49-46% in the event the CNN internals are correct and Obama  recreates 2008 Ohio turnout. But turnout aside, this poll doesn't have a lot of good news for Mitt Romney. He only attracts 85% of his own base (Obama gets 92% of his), with just 6% in crossover support from Democrats, while Obama gets 11% from Republicans. The only bright spot for Romney is that he dominates with Independents, winning them by 15 points (53-38%).

 The D+9 partisan ID finding by CNN is not intentional. They find what they find. And on the days they polled Ohio, Democrats may have been more willing to take the survey. But of course, on the other hand, very, very few people truly believe that Ohio turnout in November will be more Democratic than 2008, much less 4 points more Democratic.

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