Monday, September 24, 2018

Why State-Level Presidential Job Approval Matters In Midterm Elections

›
History has shown midterm results can be unkind to the president's party when the president's job approval rating is under 45%. ...
Friday, March 18, 2016

Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and the Impending Gender-Gap Explosion

›
In every presidential election since exit polling began over forty years ago, Democrats have performed stronger among women than men, wh...
2 comments:
Friday, March 4, 2016

No, Trump Is Not Unusually Strong Among Democrats - But He IS Unusually Weak Among Republicans

›
From Mitt Romney's past dalliance with government healthcare and abortion, to John McCain's involvement with campaign finance an...
Thursday, February 25, 2016

Trump vs. Rubio vs. Cruz In The Electoral College - Who Beats Clinton?

›
Getty image As the 2016 presidential race progresses, I've given in and decided to try my hand at a bit of electoral projection. Tru...
Friday, February 19, 2016

Post-New Hampshire Primary Polling Suggests Trump's Historically Well Positioned To Capture GOP Nomination

›
Photos, from left to right, courtesy of Getty Images, Carlos Osorio/AP, and Mike Segar/Reuters To the chagrin of the sixty-to-seventy-o...
Thursday, February 4, 2016

Iowa Entrance Poll Finding: Democratic Caucus-Goers Lurch Sharply Leftward in 2016, Republicans Less Conservative

›
Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images An unquestionable, and entirely predictable ideological shift in the Democratic Party was confirmed by...
Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Newsflash: Donald Trump's Poll Numbers Are Brutal, But That's Nothing New

›
Donald Trump peaked in 2011 national GOP primary polling at 26% . His best performance this year is 16% . Photo courtesy of Charlie Leight...
Wednesday, July 8, 2015

The Rise of Non-White Voters: Why The Racial Composition Of National 2016 Election Polls May Be Missing The Mark

›
Exit polling indicates that the non-white share of the electorate has increased by 2-4% in every presidential election since 1992. Pictur...
Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Jeb vs. George: A Comparison Of The Bush Brothers' Pre-Primary Polling

›
Barbara Bush recently quipped that Jeb was not her favorite son. If pre-primary polling is any indication, he isn't America's f...
Monday, June 8, 2015

The Silent Center: How Republican Moderates Have Come To Dominate Recent Presidential Primaries

›
Rick Santorum was the runner-up to the Republican nomination in 2012, as was Mike Huckabee in 2008. But if either contest had been limited...
Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Polling Update: Hillary Clinton's Image Dinged In Wake of Email Scandal, Though The Injuries Are Minor

›
Photo courtesy of Yana Paskova/Getty Images In the seemingly never-ending spectacle that is the modern day presidential campaign, the m...
Thursday, March 12, 2015

Operation Chaos Part Two? What The Lack Of A 2016 Democratic Primary Could Mean For The Republican Contest

›
These two men may not share much in common, but both were the prime beneficiaries of independent and Democratic votes in their respective ...