It's a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there is over. Obama is not popular in the state, with 48% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. Among voters who remain undecided there just 13% think he's doing a good job to 65% who give him poor marks. That doesn't mean those folks will move to Romney en masse because they don't particularly like him either (a 26/37 favorability rating) but it does mean there's potential for the race there to get within tossup range over the final five weeks.
PPP finds Ohio likely voters self-identifying as 41% Democrat, 36% Republican, 23% Independent, or D+5. In PPP's last Ohio poll from September 18, Ohio party ID was D+8 (and Obama led 50-44%). What would PPP's poll look like under a 2010 turnout senario?: