Showing posts with label Arkansas Senate 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arkansas Senate 2010. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Is Mark Pryor Following In Blanche Lincoln's Footsteps? Not Necessarily From A Polling Perspective

A vehemently anti-Democrat view of politics has taken hold in Arkansas, at least at the federal level, and is no doubt partially responsible for Blanche Lincoln's (2nd from left) 2010 landslide loss. And while Sen Pryor might not look quite as weak, he's no doubt in danger. Photos courtesy of Getty & Washington Post

Since 12 year Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was defeated three years ago by Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) in a 58-37% landslide, Republicans have licked their chops at the idea of turning a state recently represented in D.C. by two Democratic Senators into a state represented by two Republicans, all over the course of just four years.

Partly because of Sen. Lincoln's humiliating 2010 loss, Arkansas again looks like a top pick-up opportunity for the GOP in 2014, thanks to an eerily similar positioned Sen. Mark Pryor (D).

Like Lincoln before him, Pryor was elected to an Arkansas more amenable to southern moderate Democrats, having taken office in January 2003. And like Lincoln, Pryor's two previous Senate runs have been relative cakewalks, winning by an eight point margin in 2002, and 80% in 2008 (he was unopposed by Republicans). But also like Lincoln before him, Pryor finds himself facing talented Republican opposition at a time when Obama is VERY unpopular in the state, and not on the ballot.

In 2010, not only were Arkansans down on the federal government (74% described themselves as angry/dissatisfied with it, 25% were satisfied/enthusiastic about it), down on Obamacare (55% wanted to repeal it), and down on the Democratic Party (a 40/57% favorability rating, vs. 51/43% for the Republicans); they were also very disappointed with their President, giving him a dreadful 37/62% approval rating, with 47% "strongly" disapproving.

Unfortunately for Sen. Pryor (D), some things never change, especially in Arkansas.

They still hate Obamacare (pg. 11), still prefer Republicans to Democrats (pg. 3), and still aren't particularly fond of the President, OR the job he is doing:

* denotes the survey measured Obama's favorability rating, rather than his job approval.