|Gov. Bob McDonnell and Michele Bachmann join Mitt Romney on stage at a rally in Portsmouth, Virginia last May. Photo courtesy of Mark Makela/Reuters|
Who are we to argue with poll findings? But I would propose that Quinnipiac's party ID findings certainly represent Obama's ceiling in Virginia, and probably Romney's floor.
What would Mitt Romney's ceiling look like in Virginia, using the Quinnipiac poll findings? Given that no statewide election was held in Virginia in 2010, I'll look to the 2009 Governor's race and the 2004 Presidential race for a example of Mitt Romney's ceiling in Virginia. In both years, Virginia turnout was R+4.
Here is what the Quinnipiac poll would look like reweighted to 2009/2004 Virginia turnout.
Quinnipiac poll weighted to 2009 Virginia turnout:
Party ID Obama Romney
33D 31.68 (96%) 0.99 (3%)
37R 2.22 (6%) 34.41 (93%)
30I 10.8 (36%) 17.1 (57%)