Rick Santorum's rough road to the 2016 nomination

A new article from the Christian Post reports that an anonymous evangelical leader close to the Santorum team has confided that the 2012 GOP runner-up is taking steps to run in 2016:

"Rick's getting ready [sic] organized and is not going to be behind the eight-ball when it comes to fundraising and building a grassroots organization," the anonymous source said. "I think you'll see and hear a lot from Rick in the next 12 months."

The article points to a post-election email from Rick and Karen Santorum to supporters as further evidence that Santorum is gearing-up for another campaign:

Soon after the election was over, Santorum and his team sent out an email to supporters hinting of another run and indicated that he and his wife Karen would be working to rebuild a party splintered by ideology and infighting about why minorities and young women are peeling away from the GOP platform.

"As a result of this election," Santorum wrote, "we now need to engage with even more energy and commitment not just in politics, but in our daily lives, to ensure that the values upon which our country has prospered will continue." And here is the kicker: "Karen and I look forward to working side by side with you to make that happen."

If Rick Santorum does choose to run for the presidency again, he may have a hard time breaking through in a 2016 field that will likely be of a higher caliber than the 2012 field, in which Santorum placed a distant second behind Mitt Romney. For an example of this difficulty, look no further than the 3 recent 2016 primary polls taken by Public Policy Polling in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida. 

                    

For a runner-up in a recent primary race, Santorum isn't exactly blowing their socks off in the early contests. His favorability amongst Republicans is fair, but his single digit poll numbers and inability to finish in the top 3 anywhere indicates he is not as strong as the two former GOP runner-ups from 2008 were: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee: (Note that while PPP waited a little longer to start polling the 2012 presidential season last time around, both Huckabee and Romney, the dualing co-runner-ups from 2008, consistently performed at the top of their pack in the first 2012 polls of the early states.) :

 

Both the 2nd AND 3rd place finishers from the 2008 GOP primary polled very well in early 2012 primary polling, while Santorum ranks consistently from the middle to back of the pack in the early 2016 states.

As for all the hay Santorum supporters make about him being the 2012 runner-up, the stats behind that title aren't all that impressive. He only received 20% of the total GOP primary vote (to Romney's 52%), and only amassed 255 delegates to Romney's 1,318. He only won 11 contests, compared to the 40 won by Romney. So yes, Santorum was the "runner-up" in 2012, but don't let that fool you into believing the contest was terribly close. Not to mention that the last national poll of Rick Santorum's favorability amongst all adults found him at a paltry 36/48%, near the bottom of the pack for the 12 Republicans tested.

But rough poll numbers and tougher competitors aren't the only thing standing in Santorum's way. One of the major themes of the 2012 general election - the effects of changing demographics - may also be rearing it's head in the Iowa Caucus electorate. A recent Public Policy Polling survey of Iowa Republican primary voters found respondents LESS conservative and LESS evangelical than in 2012 OR 2008.

Both the number of evangelicals AND conservatives have declined as a share of the Iowa Caucus electorate, if you believe that PPP's findings will hold up through 2016. As I noted yesterday, the drop in the number of evangelicals and conservatives in the Iowa Caucus could greatly complicate the race for candidates that have the most appeal to those voters: most specifically, Rick Santoum.

In the end, it's likely Rick Santorum will run again. He certainly has no other prospect for elected office, having lost his last seat in the US Senate by 17 points six years ago. And he did just well enough in 2012 to believe he has a decent shot. But 2016 is NOT going to be 2012, where a field of powerful Republicans feared taking on a personally popular President Obama. Santorum will also likely not benefit from a strong desire amongst conservatives to avoid nominating a "Romney-esque" candidate, as in 2012. Rick may have beat the exceedingly low expectations set for him four years ago, but he would be remiss to believe that the same political environment of 2012 will be in place four years from now.