The -23 point favorability rating for Palin would give pause to anyone considering a run for President, and indeed, may be the reason why she didn't throw her hat in the ring in 2012. Below is a chart of Governor Sarah Palin's national favorability ratings, starting in the months before the historic 2010 GOP take over of Congress (a feat that was largely accredited to Palin's primary-advocacy on behalf of Tea Party candidates across the nation):
Palin's favorable / unfavorable rating since September, 2010
As you can see from the chart, an examination of the last two years of Palin's favorable/unfavorable rating indicates she saw her highest popularity around the time of the Tea Party take over of Congress. But even then, her favorability only averaged 38%/51% by the end 2010. Her ratings took a notable dip across the board early the next year following the tragic Tuscon shooting of Rep. Gabby Giffords, when Palin and the Tea Party movement were called out for blame by the national media (rather unfairly). Her fav/unfav score SINCE the shooting has averaged 31%/57% (a net 13 pt drop from her average prior to Tuscon). Unfortunately for the former Alaska Governor, Tuscon appears to have been a pivotal moment in her political career. Before then, her mediocre favorability may have been overcome with a concerted, smart public relations push. Since then, negative sentiment regarding Sarah Palin seems to have deepened and become more entrenched.
Fact is, fairly or unfairly, for good or for bad, Sarah Palin is not a well-liked national politician. Sure, she has a strong base of support among Americans who identify as "Republican" (66/25% per the new PPP poll) or "Conservative," (65/24%) but it stops there, rather haltingly. Moderates & Liberals hold an overwhelmingly negative view of Palin (16/74% and 9/80%, respectively). Independents in the PPP survey view Sarah Palin unfavorably by a 51-38% margin, despite disapproving of the job Barack Obama is doing as president by a staggering 22 points (37/59%)! That's a problem for any candidate for high office.
Just to show you HOW big of a problem it is, the below charts examine what it would take for Palin's favorability rating to break even in the PPP survey. How many Republicans or Conservatives would have to exist in the electorate for Palin's favorable rating to exceed her unfavorable rating (something it hasn't done since before 2010)? The PPP poll finds Americans identifying as 29% Liberal, 32% Moderate, and 39% Conservative. The libeal/conservative gap is roughly similar to what exit polls found on election day, 2012, when 25% identified as Liberal, 41% as moderate, and 35% as Conservative, though the 39% Conservative finding by PPP is historically high (NOT high enough for Palin to break even). How high would that conservative number have to be? Very high:
