Undecided Voters Poised To Flock To Mark Pryor's Republican Challenger in Senate Race, Says New PPP Poll

Photo courtesy of Club For Growth TV ad.

A new poll in Arkansas from the Democratic leaning pollster Public Policy Polling puts incumbent Senator Mark Pryor ahead of his Republican opponent Congressman Tim Cotton by just one point, or 43-42%, with 16% undecided. This result might be interpreted by some as impressive for a Democratic Senator in a deep-red state, especially considering the conventional wisdom around the race for much of the last year as one of the Republican Party's likeliest Senate pick-up opportunities.

But not so fast. Tom Jensen tweeted out this crucial bit of information following the official poll release:

Obama's overall approval in Arkansas is 33/61. Among voters undecided for Senate it's 13/74: http://t.co/6dS4ewv60o
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) April 30, 2014

In a race where both major party candidates are polling in the lower 40s, the undecided vote could dramatically alter the outcome. And there are several data points that would assist in providing clues about where those undecided voters will ultimately end up. Are they Democrats or Republicans? Young or Old? Liberal or Conservative? Among PPP respondents who said they voted in the 2012 election, it's the Romney voters that remain more undecided than Obama voters (17% to 8%). That's an obvious plus for Tom Cotton (R). Conservatives are more undecided than liberals (16% to 12%), another plus for Cotton. A full eighteen percent of Independent voters remain undecided (more than Republicans or Democrats), and they support Cotton over Pryor 50-31%. Yet at the same time, women, who support Pryor by greater margins than men, are more undecided than men. African Americans, as well as younger voters, both of which being groups more likely to support Pryor, are more undecided than whites or older voters.

But perhaps more important than any of these stats regarding undecideds is what Tom Jensen tweeted above - the fact that the President's approval rating is upside down with these voters by 61 points!

Unfortunately, PPP didn't provide a crosstab of how poll respondents that approved or disapproved of Obama's job performance said they would vote in a Pryor vs. Cotton match-up. But pollsters that have provided such info in the past would note that there's a very close correlation between a voters feelings towards the President's job performance, and how he or she may cast a vote in a federal partisan contest.

Suppose those sixteen percent of Arkansas voters that said they were undecided between Mark Pryor and Tom Cotton supported the two candidates by the same proportion they approved or disapproved of President Obama? Or in other words, suppose 13% of those undecided voters end up supporting Mark Pryor, while 74% end up supporting Cotton. How would PPP's final result have looked?

Senator Mark Pryor's one point lead over Tom Cotton evaporates into an eight point DEFICIT in the event undecided voters break for the candidates in a proportion identical to their approval of Obama's job performance. What was a 43-42% Democratic lead becomes a 53-45% Republican lead.

Obviously, this is purely speculative. But the big news from this PPP poll shouldn't be the fact that Pryor's clinging to a lead. It should be that if the crosstabs are to be believed, Pryor's lead is fleeting.

Despite Some Screwy Crosstabs, NYT Polling Finds Unpopular Obama Hasn't Sunk Senate Democrats Yet

Photos courtesy of Corbis Images.

A spate of brand new surveys put out by the New York Times and conducted by the Kaiser Foundation finds once incredibly vulnerable Democratic incumbent Senators hanging on, and in some cases, leading their Republican opponents in four states carried by Mitt Romney in 2012:

• Arkansas, which Obama lost in 2012 61-37%
• Kentucky, which Obama lost in 2012 61-38%
• North Carolina, which Obama lost in 2012 50-48%, and
• Louisiana, which Obama lost in 2012 58-41%.

The Democratic resilience found by the Kaiser Foundation seems all the more miraculous considering how deeply unpopular the president is in all four states. His most positive rating is 41/51%, found in North Carolina, with his most negative rating coming from Kentucky, where just 32% of registered voters approve of the job Obama is doing, and 60% disapprove. Yet still, in those states, both incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan, and Democratic challenger Allison Lundergen Grimes, are exceeding expectations considering the unpopularity of their party boss. Hagan's net job approval rating is 10 points higher than the President's, and she actually leads both of her likely primary opponents by 2. Grimes, who is saddled by a President with a 60% disapproval rating, only trails McConnell 44-43%.

The same applies in Arksansas and Louisiana. In the former, Obama is stained by a 33/60% job approval rating, a full THIRTY-SIX net points LOWER than Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Pryor's 47/38% job rating. Not only that, but Pryor leads Cotton (R) 46-36%. In Louisiana, the President's net job rating is SIXTEEN points lower than Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu's.

All in all - this is some much-needed decent news for Democrats. But a word of caution regarding the results...

Is Mark Pryor Following In Blanche Lincoln's Footsteps? Not Necessarily From A Polling Perspective

A vehemently anti-Democrat view of politics has taken hold in Arkansas, at least at the federal level, and is no doubt partially responsible for Blanche Lincoln's (2nd from left) 2010 landslide loss. And while Sen Pryor might not look quite as weak, he's no doubt in danger. Photos courtesy of Getty & Washington Post

Since 12 year Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was defeated three years ago by Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) in a 58-37% landslide, Republicans have licked their chops at the idea of turning a state recently represented in D.C. by two Democratic Senators into a state represented by two Republicans, all over the course of just four years.

Partly because of Sen. Lincoln's humiliating 2010 loss, Arkansas again looks like a top pick-up opportunity for the GOP in 2014, thanks to an eerily similar positioned Sen. Mark Pryor (D).

Like Lincoln before him, Pryor was elected to an Arkansas more amenable to southern moderate Democrats, having taken office in January 2003. And like Lincoln, Pryor's two previous Senate runs have been relative cakewalks, winning by an eight point margin in 2002, and 80% in 2008 (he was unopposed by Republicans). But also like Lincoln before him, Pryor finds himself facing talented Republican opposition at a time when Obama is VERY unpopular in the state, and not on the ballot.

In 2010, not only were Arkansans down on the federal government (74% described themselves as angry/dissatisfied with it, 25% were satisfied/enthusiastic about it), down on Obamacare (55% wanted to repeal it), and down on the Democratic Party (a 40/57% favorability rating, vs. 51/43% for the Republicans); they were also very disappointed with their President, giving him a dreadful 37/62% approval rating, with 47% "strongly" disapproving.

Unfortunately for Sen. Pryor (D), some things never change, especially in Arkansas.

They still hate Obamacare (pg. 11), still prefer Republicans to Democrats (pg. 3), and still aren't particularly fond of the President, OR the job he is doing:

* denotes the survey measured Obama's favorability rating, rather than his job approval.