Democrats May Have A Midterm Turnout Problem In North Carolina, But Not So Much So, Says New Rasmussen Poll

Photo courtesy of Scott McIntyre.

The release of Rasmussen's first post North Carolina Senate GOP primary survey reminded me of Nate Cohn's New York Times article from last week, titled 'Why The Democrats Turnout Problem Is Worst In North Carolina.' The piece provided some useful information pertaining to North Carolina voting demographics from the 2010 midterm election, especially considering the fact that no exit poll was conducted in the state that year.

For example, per Cohn, the white percentage of the 2010 North Carolina midterm electorate was six points whiter than in 2012 (77% vs. 71%, respectively). The black vote was three points lower than in 2012 (20% vs. 23%), while the '65 years & older' age group was 6 points higher (26% vs. 20%). Naturally, this is all good news for Republicans, as they typically perform stronger with white voters than minorities, and older voters vs younger.

In light of the information provided in the New York Times piece, lets consider how the Rasmussen survey results would have differed applying 2010-like race and age statistics.

Tillis leads Hagan overall in the survey 45-44%. Among white voters only, his lead grows to 26 points, or 57-31%. For what it's worth, that's a good deal less impressive than Romney's 68-31% advantage over Obama in 2012, when he carried the state overall by two points. Rasmussen also finds that white voters make up 72% of the NC electorate, vs. 77% in 2010. Those numbers are more in line with 2012 style turnout than 2010. So what would Rasmussen have found if survey respondents had been more illustrative of 2010 racial identification (all other findings remaining the same)?

What was a virtual tie between Tillis and Hagan becomes...welll...less of a tie. The Republican's lead is still within the four point margin of error, but he does add a bit more distance between himself and the incumbent.

A similar occurrence is seen when applying 2010-age identification to the Rasmussen survey. Tillis leads among the oldest of voters, 62-35% (while younger voters spring for Hagan, 46-29%). Rasmussen found just 20% of North Carolina likely voters identifying as being over the age of sixty-five years old, though they made up 26% of the electorate in 2010. How would the Rasmussen results have looked with a larger pool of older voters?

Again, not a significant shift, but definite movement in Tillis's direction. The bottom line is that, if you buy Rasmussen's numbers, Tillis is starting the general election against Hagan with an advantage regardless of which electorate - presidential or midterm - shows up.

Unknown Charlotte Pastor Performs Stronger Against NC Sen. Hagan Than Establishment-Backed Tillis

Taken during the Tuesday Night, April 22 North Carolina Republican Senate Primary debate. From left, Pastor Mark Harris, Nurse Heather Grant, Physician Greg Brannon, and State Legislator Thom Tillis.

The Republicans vying to take on North Carolina's Junior Senator Kay Hagan (D) met last night in a debate format for the first time prior to the May 6 primary. Besides a few barbs thrown at the Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads backed Thom Tillis (R), the event likely did little to shift opinion in the largely unsettled primary. But there was one claim made during the closing arguments of First Baptist Church of Charlotte Pastor Mark Harris that sounded dubious coming from someone who is largely (73%) unknown outside of his congregation.

Consider the tweet below from debate viewer Jonathan Kappler, Director of UNC's State Government Relations:

in closing statement, Harris said only 1 candidate beats Sen Hagan in the latest poll outside the margin of error (him) #NCSenDebate
— Jonathan Kappler (@jonathankappler) April 22, 2014

The poll referred to by Pastor Harris was conducted by SurveyUSA at the end of March, and showed Sen. Hagan trailing Harris 47-43%, more than she trailed anyone else, though NOT outside the poll's 2.6% margin of error (that would have required Harris lead Hagan by at least 49-43%). But SurveyUSA isn't the only pollster to find Harris leading the incumbent Senator by a larger margin than the rest of the field. Local partisan pollster Public Policy Polling also found Harris with a four point lead against Hagan, better than all but one primary opponent, (but again, inside the survey's 3.6% margin of error). For what it's worth, the establishment-backed Tillis only led Hagan 46-45% in the SurveyUSA poll, and actually trailed Hagan 43-41% per PPP.

North Carolina Looking Less And Less Like A 2014 GOP Pick-Up Opportunity, Courtesy Of Gov. McCrory

Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) is starting to look like one lucky Freshman, in part thanks to the increasingly unpopular Repulican Governor, Pat McCrory. Photo on right courtesy of Donkeyhotey.

Congressional Republicans really, really need North Carolina's Senate seat to fall in their column next November if their dream of capturing BOTH houses of Congress for the 1st time during the Obama Presidency are going to be realized.

Fortunately for them, Barack Obama, after a brief reelection honeymoon, is again unpopular (thanks to a persistently weak economic recovery, and more recently, a foreign policy blunder that would make even Jimmy Carter blush).

This fact, coupled with the structural advantages the party out of power typically enjoys in midterm elections, has the GOP seeing visions of 2010 on the horizon.

But 'not so fast' says one of 2012's most accurate pollsters, the notably partisan and recently embattled Public Policy Polling . . . or at least, not if the Republicans path to 51 Senate seats runs through North Carolina.

The current breakdown of the 113th Congress is 54 Democrats and 46 Republicans, meaning the GOP would need to pick up at least 5 seats to obtain a majority. According to an array of political forecasting reports, the Republican's are all but assured a three-seat pick-up (the retiring Democrats in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana). The remaining pick-ups are expected to come from 2 of the following red-state Democrats up for reelection in 2014: Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska, or Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina.

And according to last week's numbers from PPP, Sen. Hagan (NC) looks like the LEAST vulnerable. She leads all 7 of her most likely Republican contenders by double-digit margins ranging from 12-17 points.

As the excuse for poor poll numbers, the GOP camps will rightfully note their candidate's near-anonymity with voters. But Senator Hagan isn't that terribly well-known herself, especially for a five year Senator.

What's more? The potential GOP nominees are polling the weakest they have to date in head-to-heads against Hagan, and PPP's been following this race every month since December 2012.

Kay Hagan (D-NC) leads 2014 Senate race, but shouldn't get too confident.

 From left, Homeland Security Head Janet Napolitano, outgoing, one-term North Carolina Governor Beverly Perdue (D), and 2014 Senate candidate for North Carolina, incumbent Senator Kay Hagan (D) in 2011. (AP Photo/The News & Observer, Chris Seward) (Credit: AP)

Public Policy Polling's survey of their home state, the first of the new year, delivered somewhat of a split verdict for Democrats and Republicans of North Carolina. On the bright side for Republicans, their newly elected Governor Pat McCrory is starting his term with largely positive feelings from most voters, sporting a 45% job approval rating, with just 19% disapproving. At the same stage of ex-Gov. Beverly Perdue's governorship in 2009, her job approval rating was at a much lower 43/32%. Not only is McCrory the most popular politician in the state, but President Obama, who currently averages a national job approval rating of 52/43%, is underwater at 46/52%. Tom Jensen of PPP notes in the release:

 According to the 2009 poll, President Obama held an approval rating of 52% and a
disapproval rating of 41%. In this current poll, Obama holds a 46% approval rating and
52% disapproval rating. This change in approval rating is reflected in the change from
North Carolina going blue in the 2008 election to red in the 2012 election.

Democrat Kay Hagan remains largely unknown and hardly-liked after 4 years as Senator, with a job approval/disapproval rating of 34/36%.

The one bright-spot for Democrats in North Carolina is the fact that at this early stage of the 2014 cycle, there appears to be no credible Republican challenger to Sen. Hagan's seat in Washington. Despite her apparent middling poll numbers, all 7 potential Republican challengers tested by PPP failed to get closer than 6 points to the U.S. Senator who 31% of her constituents have no opinion of. Two possible GOP candidates tie for coming the closest to Sen. Hagan: Rep. Renee Ellmers (R), a 2-term Congresswoman from the 2nd district trails just 46-40%, and Rep. Patrick McHenry (R), a 5-term Congressman from the 10th district trails 45-39%. Hagan's weakest opponent, NC State Representative Thom Tillis trails by 10 points, 47-37%.

One thing worth noting, especially considering the typically older, whiter midterm electorates, is that PPP found NC voters identifying as 12 points MORE Democratic than Republican in their 2014 poll. Unfortunately, no exit polls were conducted during the last midterm election in NC (2010), and exit polling is unavailable for NC's 2002 midterm election. But it is worth pointing out that in the 2012 Governor's race between Pat McCrory (R) & Walter Dalton (D) just 2.5 months ago, Democrats only held a five point advantage over the Republicans in partisan identification. Even more telling than that, NC party I.D. was only D+11 in the 2008 Governor's race, the same year that a Democrat won NC on the presidential level for the first time since 1976. So while PPP's party ID finding may be a reflection of current dissatisfaction with Republicans in Washington, it also reflects a more Democratic electorate than North Carolina has seen in recent history, especially for a midterm election. Below are tables explaining what Barack Obama's, Pat McCrory's (R), and Kay Hagan's (D) job approval numbers would have looked like had PPP found NC party ID the same as the 2012 Governor's race (38% Democrat, 33% Republican, 28% Independent, or D+5), all other findings remaining the same: