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| Gubernatorial candidates John Hickenlooper (left) and Tom Tancredo (right) debate in 2010. Photos courtesy of Floyd Brandt. |
Quinnipiac University lit up the twitter-sphere this morning after releasing their first survey of the 2014 Colorado Governor's race showing anti-immigration firebrand and 2010 loser Tom Tancredo (R) trailing the once popular Gov. John Hickenlooper by ONE point, 42-41%.
Hickenlooper burst onto the scene in 2010, a year not remembered for impressive Democratic landslides by any stretch. Yet that was what the 1-term Colorado Governor accomplished when he defeated Tom Tancredo (Constitution Party) and Dan Maes (R) in a 3 way race, 51-36-11%.
In his first two years in office, Hickenlooper enjoyed widespread and bipartisan support from Colorado residents, averaging a rare 59/25% job approval/disapproval rating. In fact, during the presidential year alone, where partisan loyalties typically result in increased polarization, and thus, lower ratings for elected partisan officials, Hickenlooper managed to never dip below 54% job approval in a single poll, while never rising above 36% job disapproval. He actually averaged 60/26% for all of 2012:
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| Compiled from TPM Poll Tracker and various internet searches. |
But a series of deeply unpopular legislative moves have eroded the good will and bipartisan support he enjoyed his first two years (such as granting a temporary death penalty reprieve for a convicted murderer, a move opposed by 67% of Colorado voters, according to Quinnipiac).
And though polling data has been limited so far this year with regards to Gov. Hickenlooper's job approval, the two pollsters to survey this question have shown serious deterioration in his numbers.
Public Policy Polling had previously measured Hickenlooper's job approval just before the presidential election, when he clocked in with an impressive 55/26%, or +29. But just 6 months later, their April survey found him at 53/44%, a net 20 point drop.
Quinnipiac's shift was even more drastic, if you can believe it. They too found Hickenlooper's job performance widely admired in their last survey taken pre-election (59/21%, +38). Yet 9 months later, in the survey released today, they find Hickenlooper's ratings have collapsed by a net 34 points!
Movements in public perception of this size in such a short span are pretty rare. But nothing drives home the reality of Hickenlooper's decline more than the fact that Tom Tancredo is nipping at his heels for the 2014 Governor's race, if Quinnipiac is to be believed:
