Obama Administration's "The Sky Is Falling" Antics Catch Up To The President's Job Approval Rating

Stock Photograph by White House Public Domain

Yesterday, a new McClatchy/Marist survey was accompanied by the following headline: "...Obama Tumbling in voters' eyes." Their conclusion was based on the fact that Barack Obama's job approval rating has fallen to it's lowest point since November of 2011, at 45/48%, while only 34% say the country is on the right track (62% say it's on the wrong track). Their previous survey from early December 2012 had shown the President in positive territory, with 50% of Americans approving of the job he was doing as President, and just 44% disapproving.

Unfortunately for Obama, the McClatchy/Marist poll is not an anomaly. In fact, the vast majority of pollster's who have examined the President's job approval rating since his reelection have found a decline in his numbers, especially since the sequester took effect just two weeks ago. Consider for example the two daily tracking polls, Gallup and Rasmussen. Before March 1st, the day the budget sequestration officially went into effect, Barack Obama managed an average daily job approval rating of 52/42%, a net +10 points, since his reelection. But an average of Gallup surveys taken after the sequester shows his job rating has fallen to 48/45%, a net decline of 7 points. Meanwhile, the Rasmussen daily tracking survey shows Obama has averaged a 51/48% job approval rating since the sequestration went into effect, compared to a 54/45% job rating from his reelection to March 1st.

The chart below compiles a list of every polling survey on Barack Obama's job approval rating I could find. While poll trackers like Pollster and TPM are helpful, they are often incomplete, excluding various pollsters for particular reasons. The below chart is more complete than any single 1 of the poll trackers, and compiles Barack Obama's average job rating from his reelection last November to today:

**Job approval info courtesy of TPM poll tracker, Huffington Post Pollster, pollingreport.com, and random personal searches.

***Rasmussen and Gallup track the President's approval rating daily. As a result, their numbers in the above chart represent weekly averages.

It's Not the End of The World for the GOP: A Comparison of 2010 and 2014 Generic Congressional Ballot Polling

Republicans seem to be doing a lot of head-scratching these days. For most of President Obama's time in office, nothing seems to have gone the way they had predicted or hoped. And worse than that, the GOP is receiving the overwhelming majority of the blame from the American public for the country's seeming state of disarray. From the debt ceiling debate, to the "fiscal cliff," to the sequester and more, President Obama has become the new Teflon president, while the GOP can barely muster a quarter of the country to admit they have a favorable view of the party. But how can all of this be? After all, the Democrats have controlled the Senate chamber for the last 6 years, and the White House the last four.  The President's masterful control of the bully pulpit, his continued nationwide, campaign-style advocacy on behalf of his 2nd term agenda, and an obviously supportive D.C. press corps, all have some role in creating the impression of a Republican Party that just can't get it together. 

And to top it off, in the wake of weak white turnout in 2012, there's talk in some circles of an emerging Democratic majority, at least at the presidential level. Sounds like a bit of a disaster for the GOP, huh? Surprisingly, no, not if the generic congressional ballot for 2014 is any indication.

According to both Pollster Trend and TPM Poll Tracker, Democrats currently lead the 2014 generic congressional ballot by just 42-40% and 43-40%, respectively. Regarding the 3 most recent surveys from 3 pollsters that frequently ask the generic ballot question, Republicans actually LEAD in one of them (Harper Polling (R)), TIE in one (PPP (D)), and trail by 3 in the other (Rasmussen). Should these numbers convince the GOP it's time to the shift their views leftward, or cause panic over a Democratic landslide in 2014? Probably not, especially once you consider where Republicans stood on the generic ballot at this point in the 2010 cycle. The below chart compares the 2010 and 2014 generic ballots by looking at an average through the time line of post-election 2008/2012 through the present (early March 2009/2013):

Compiled from TPM and Pollster

Without question, the Tea Party landslide of 2010 was an electoral high-watermark for Republicans over the last quarter century. That year, Republicans gained 63 House seats, 6 senate seats, controlled 29/50 governor seats, and carried the national house vote 51-45%. Yet despite all their success, at this very point in the 2010 cycle, it was the DEMOCRATS that led the Republicans on the generic ballot, 44-37%, as the above chart indicates. By comparison, present-day Republicans are only trailing Democrats on the generic ballot 45-41%. So, here's a message to Republicans: The SKY IS NOT FALLING...yet, at least. Especially not when you realize that no 2nd-term President's party has gained seats in Congress in their final midterm election since 1938, save 1998.