Could the party that nominated Romney & McCain pass on Christie in 2016? A Look at Pre-Primary Favorability Polling

Though it may sound surprising, the two men in the middle averaged higher favorability ratings with Republicans in the run-up to their primary runs than Chris Christie has averaged so far this year. But George W. Bush leaves all three far behind in terms of pre-primary adoration from their own party.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has managed to shock political junkies with an unparalleled bipartisan allure in an intensely divisive era.

That appeal became apparent in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, and was recently reinforced by a new national Gallup poll showing Christie with a double-digit net positive favorability rating among Republicans (+35), Independents (+30), AND DEMOCRATS (+34)!

If you buy the Gallup numbers, Christie is in fine shape with his own party, contrary to some of the more vocal personalities on the Right. That's even more surprising after taking a step back to examine what has transpired between the New Jersey Governor and his national political base over the last several months - the Obama/Sandy embrace days before Mitt Romney was defeated at the ballot box, the aggressive press conference ripping House Republicans for allegedly playing politics with the Sandy relief bill, culminating in a seemingly self-serving snub at Senate Republicans regarding the timing of an upcoming special Senate contest. 

Yet despite the murmurings from disgruntled Conservatives, Governor Christie's popularity has held up remarkably well with Republicans and GOP primary voters, even beyond the single June Gallup poll cited above. See the chart below:

(*) denotes survey data comes from a Republican sub-sample. Polls without (*) are of GOP primary voters. Data compiled from Huffington Post Pollster, Polling Report, and Argo Journal.

To date, Christie has managed a net 25 point favorability rating among Republicans nation wide, at least based on the somewhat limited pool of data we have available since the 2012 election.

That's good enough to win a GOP presidential nomination, right?

Maybe. But for what it's worth, BOTH of the Republican party's last two presidential nominees had higher pre-primary favorability ratings within their own party than Chris Christie does today; a fact that really comes into focus when you recall the last two nominees were noted squishy 'RINOS' John McCain and Mitt Romney. 

Consider Senator John McCain, who wrapped up his party's nomination in March 2008, just two months after it began, and defeated runners-up Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee by an impressive 47-22-20%. On the eve of the Iowa Caucus (which he lost handily), McCain had averaged a 55/23% fav/unfav rating with Republicans since the 2004 election.

(*) denotes survey data comes from a Republican sub-sample. Polls without (*) are of GOP primary voters. Data compiled from Huffington Post Pollster, Polling Report, and Real Clear Politics.

While McCain's average unfavorable rating was identical to Christie's today, his favorable rating with Republicans was 7 points higher (55 vs. 48%).  And by the time McCain actually won his first primary contest, a staggering 75% of New Hampshire primary voters viewed him favorably.

Also consider the most recent Republican presidential loser, Mitt Romney. He too captured his party's nomination early (in April, and that's only because of the long drought of contests in February), and by an even more sweeping margin than John McCain (defeating Santorum and Gingrich 53-20-14%). Perhaps unsurprisingly, Romney averaged an even higher favorability rating among Republicans from 2008-2011 than John McCain in 2004-2007, hitting 58/21%:

(*) denotes survey data comes from a Republican sub-sample. Polls without (*) are of GOP primary voters. Data compiled from Huffington Post Pollster, Polling Report, and Real Clear Politics.

More specifically, Romney averaged 63/18% ratings in the first 9 months following the 2008 presidential election. [Remember, by comparison, Chris Christie averaged a 48/23% rating over the corresponding period in 2013. In other words, Romney was a net 20 points more popular with Republicans at this point in 2009 than Christie is now.] 

Obviously, none of this is meant to argue that Christie is toast in a Presidential primary. It's still about 2 years until Labor Day 2015, largely seen as the drop-dead date by which presidential primary contestants can enter the race and still be successful, and 2.5 years before the first contests are held.

But if Christies' current favorability average among Republican and GOP primary voters does not improve between now and Iowa, he would enter the presidential contest in a weaker position than both John McCain and Mitt Romney - not exactly good company to be in.

The last Republican to win a presidential race, George W. Bush, puts Christie, Romney, and McCain all to shame in terms of pre- Iowa Caucus love from his own party.  His average favorability rating from Nov. 1996 through Jan. 2000 was 73%, with a +66 net rating (compared to McCain's +32, Romney's +37, and Christie's present +25):

(*) denotes survey data comes from a Republican sub-sample. Polls without (*) are of GOP primary voters. Data compiled from National Journal and Polling Report.

In other words, George W. Bush was 34 points more popular among Republicans than John McCain was at a similar stage, 29 points more popular than Mitt Romney was, and a staggering 41 points more popular than Chris Christie. Perhaps that's why Bush captured 60% of all primary voters in 2000, vs. Romney's 53% in 2012 and McCain's 47% in 2012.

Yes, Chris Christie is a political phenom for his ability to maintain double digit favorability among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. But that popularity does him little good in a Republican primary, where the three previous nominees before him were all considerably more popular than he is at this stage. +25 is a great place to be for any politician, but much less so when referring to members of your own party. George W. Bush was averaging +25 or better with ALL voters in 1997 and 1998, in part due to near unanimous support from his own party. That's the kind of entrenched, partisan support that comes in handy in both general AND primary elections...something Christie doesn't yet have.